Botafogo RJ

1 - 1

Fluminense

Botafogo RJ Proves Impossible to Beat on Their Own Turf. However, Fluminense shared points in 5 straight matches.

Sun, Aug 9, 2026 00:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 50%
D: 20%
Away: 30%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.56 - 3.45 - 3.13)
HOMETEAM: 39%
29%
AWAYTEAM: 32%

Weight: [Close] (21.05)
Intensity: [Fierce] (78.95)

Botafogo RJ (Fact Index 2.56):
Expected Win % is 39%, compared to a 36% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 20% in this event.

Fluminense (Fact Index 3.13):
Expected Win % is 32%, compared to a 27% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 40% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Botafogo RJ:
T : 0.400 (0.520 / ▼0.120)
H : 0.444 (0.586 / ▼0.142)
A : 0.364 (0.464 / ▼0.100)
P : 0.500 (0.648 / ▼0.148)

Fluminense:
T : 0.429 (0.559 / ▼0.130)
H : 0.636 (0.655 / ▼0.019)
A : 0.200 (0.450 / ▼0.250)
P : 0.167 (0.500 / ▼0.333)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 5 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 20%
40%
AWAY : 40%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 5 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 40%
40%
Underdog : 20%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 36%
37%
AWAY : 27%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 33%
40%
Underdog : 27%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.3 - 0.9 (Model A.)
Botafogo RJ : 42% (▲ 3%)
29% (-)
Fluminense : 29% (▼ 3%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 0.8 - 0.9 (Model B.4)
Botafogo RJ : 28% (▼ 11%)
36% (▲ 7%)
Fluminense : 36% (▲ 4%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 85.7%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.6 - 3.1 - 2.8
Botafogo RJ : 37% (▼ 2%)
30% (▲ 1%)
Fluminense : 33% (▲ 1%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 6 game(s)

HOME : 34%
D : 33%
AWAY : 33%

Based on Home team = 2.6 (37%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 33%
D : 37%
AWAY : 30%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 44%
D : 23%
AWAY : 33%

Based on Home team = 2.6 (37%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 27%
D : 30%
AWAY : 43%


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