Bahia

2 - 1

Botafogo RJ

Home Fortress Bahia: 2-Game Unbeaten Run at Home.

Sat, May 30, 2026 20:30 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 43%
D: 14%
Away: 43%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (3.45 - 2.78 - 2.86)
HOMETEAM: 29%
36%
AWAYTEAM: 35%

Weight: [Close] (10.53)
Intensity: [Extreme] (89.47)

Bahia (Fact Index 3.45):
Expected Win % is 29%, compared to a 40% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 33% in this event.

Botafogo RJ (Fact Index 2.86):
Expected Win % is 35%, compared to a 37% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 67% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Bahia:
T : 0.375 (0.514 / ▼0.139)
H : 0.250 (0.592 / ▼0.342)
P : 0.000 (0.371 / ▼0.371)

Botafogo RJ:
T : 0.375 (0.511 / ▼0.136)
A : 0.333 (0.459 / ▼0.126)
P : 0.333 (0.629 / ▼0.296)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 3 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 33%
0%
AWAY : 67%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 50%
0%
Underdog : 50%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 40%
23%
AWAY : 37%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 20 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 50%
25%
Underdog : 25%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.5 - 2.0 (Model A.)
Bahia : 39% (▲ 10%)
28% (▼ 8%)
Botafogo RJ : 33% (▼ 2%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.4 - 1.8 (Model B.4)
Bahia : 14% (▼ 15%)
38% (▲ 2%)
Botafogo RJ : 48% (▲ 13%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 76.2%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 1.9 - 3.6 - 3.8
Bahia : 49% (▲ 20%)
26% (▼ 10%)
Botafogo RJ : 25% (▼ 10%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 2 game(s)

HOME : 100%
D : 0%
AWAY : 0%

Based on Home team = 1.9 (49%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 50%
D : 27%
AWAY : 23%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 50%
D : 30%
AWAY : 20%

Based on Home team = 1.9 (49%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 63%
D : 27%
AWAY : 10%


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