Bragantino

1 - 2

Sao Paulo

Milestone: Sao Paulo hit 6 matches without a loss.

Mon, Mar 16, 2026 01:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 11%
D: 44%
Away: 44%

Home team Side

Away team Side

Neutral

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (4.00 - 2.78 - 2.56)
HOMETEAM: 25%
36%
AWAYTEAM: 39%

Weight: [Close] (15.79)
Intensity: [Extreme] (84.21)

Bragantino (Fact Index 4.00):
Expected Win % is 25%, compared to a 27% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 50% in this event.

Sao Paulo (Fact Index 2.56):
Expected Win % is 39%, compared to a 36% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 50% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Bragantino:
T : 0.400 (0.500 / ▼0.100)
P : 0.400 (0.500 / ▼0.100)

Sao Paulo:
T : 0.800 (0.858 / ▼0.058)
P : 0.800 (0.858 / ▼0.058)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 50%
0%
AWAY : 50%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 50%
0%
Underdog : 50%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 22 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 27%
37%
AWAY : 36%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 14 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 42%
29%
Underdog : 29%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 3.0 - 1.0 (Model A.)
Bragantino : 47% (▲ 22%)
26% (▼ 10%)
Sao Paulo : 27% (▼ 12%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 0.8 - 1.2 (Model B.4)
Bragantino : 22% (▼ 3%)
32% (▼ 4%)
Sao Paulo : 46% (▲ 7%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 76.2%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.5 - 3.1 - 2.9
Bragantino : 37% (▲ 12%)
30% (▼ 6%)
Sao Paulo : 33% (▼ 6%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 5 game(s)

HOME : 40%
D : 20%
AWAY : 40%

Based on Home team = 2.5 (37%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 37%
D : 33%
AWAY : 30%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 44%
D : 23%
AWAY : 33%

Based on Home team = 2.5 (37%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 30%
D : 27%
AWAY : 43%


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