Newcastle

3 - 1

Brighton

Sat, May 2, 2026 14:00 (UTC)


Facts

Newcastle :
Harvey Barnes 90' +5
Dan Burn 24'
William Osula 12'
Brighton :
Jack Hinshelwood 61'
FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 30%
D: 30%
Away: 40%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (4.00 - 4.17 - 1.96)
HOMETEAM: 25%
24%
AWAYTEAM: 51%

Newcastle (Fact Index 4.00): Expected Win % is 25%, compared to a 27% actual win rate for identical index values.

Brighton (Fact Index 1.96): Expected Win % is 51%, compared to a 46% actual win rate for identical index values.

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 27%
27%
AWAY : 46%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 86%
14%
Underdog : 0%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.0 - 2.0 (Model A.)
Newcastle : 19% (▼ 6%)
23% (▼ 1%)
Brighton : 58% (▲ 7%)

|Season Win%|Expected Win%|Expected Win% - Season Win%
T | Newcastle | 0.353 | 0.473 | ▲ 0.120
T | Brighton | 0.382 | 0.567 | ▲ 0.185
H | Newcastle | 0.471 | 0.522 | ▲ 0.051
A | Brighton | 0.294 | 0.485 | ▲ 0.191
P | Newcastle | 0.333 | 0.408 | ▲ 0.075
P | Brighton | 0.667 | 0.767 | ▲ 0.100
T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)

Expected Goals (xG) : 0.8 - 1.6 (Model B.4)
Newcastle : 8% (▼ 17%)
34% (▲ 10%)
Brighton : 58% (▲ 7%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: ver.B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 90.5%)


Average Odds : 2.5 - 3.6 - 2.7
Newcastle : 38% (▲ 13%)
26% (▲ 2%)
Brighton : 36% (▼ 15%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 40%
D : 27%
AWAY : 33%

Hometeam = 2.5 Trend:

HOME : 54%
D : 23%
AWAY : 23%

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