Sao Paulo

4 - 1

Cruzeiro

Sao Paulo: Unbeaten run extended to 2 fixtures. Meanwhile, Cruzeiro struggling to perform on the road, losing 3 consecutive games.

Sat, Apr 4, 2026 21:30 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 57%
D: 14%
Away: 29%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.85 - 3.85 - 5.00)
HOMETEAM: 54%
26%
AWAYTEAM: 20%

Weight: [Distant] (73.68)
Intensity: [Tilted] (26.32)

Sao Paulo (Fact Index 1.85):
Expected Win % is 54%, compared to a 70% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 100% in this event.

Cruzeiro (Fact Index 5.00):
Expected Win % is 20%, compared to a 10% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Sao Paulo:
T : 0.556 (0.687 / ▼0.131)
H : 0.750 (0.807 / ▼0.057)
P : 0.500 (0.629 / ▼0.129)

Cruzeiro:
T : 0.111 (0.381 / ▼0.270)
A : 0.000 (0.173 / ▼0.173)
P : 0.167 (0.500 / ▼0.333)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 100%
0%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 10 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 70%
20%
AWAY : 10%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 8 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 62%
25%
Underdog : 13%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.5 - 1.0 (Model A.)
Sao Paulo : 64% (▲ 10%)
21% (▼ 5%)
Cruzeiro : 15% (▼ 5%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 0.9 - 0.9 (Model B.4)
Sao Paulo : 36% (▼ 18%)
33% (▲ 7%)
Cruzeiro : 31% (▲ 11%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 85.7%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.1 - 3.2 - 3.5
Sao Paulo : 44% (▼ 10%)
29% (▲ 3%)
Cruzeiro : 27% (▲ 7%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 9 game(s)

HOME : 67%
D : 22%
AWAY : 11%

Based on Home team = 2.1 (44%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 40%
D : 43%
AWAY : 17%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 44%
D : 43%
AWAY : 13%

Based on Home team = 2.1 (44%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 60%
D : 27%
AWAY : 13%


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