Fluminense

2 - 1

Chapecoense

Perfect 2: Fluminense Grabs Another Consecutive Win. Meanwhile, Chapecoense road woes intensify with a 4th straight away loss.

Sun, Apr 26, 2026 23:30 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 100%
D: 0%
Away: 0%

Home team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.79 - 4.00 - 5.26)
HOMETEAM: 56%
25%
AWAYTEAM: 19%

Weight: [Polar Opposites] (89.47)
Intensity: [One-Sided] (10.53)

Fluminense (Fact Index 1.79):
Expected Win % is 56%, compared to a 66% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 100% in this event.

Chapecoense (Fact Index 5.26):
Expected Win % is 19%, compared to a 17% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Fluminense:
T : 0.583 (0.608 / ▼0.025)
H : 0.833 (0.687 / ▲0.146)
P : 0.500 (0.565 / ▼0.065)

Chapecoense:
T : 0.091 (0.289 / ▼0.198)
A : 0.000 (0.074 / ▼0.074)
P : 0.000 (0.081 / ▼0.081)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 100%
0%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 12 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 66%
17%
AWAY : 17%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 8 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 62%
25%
Underdog : 13%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 1.0 (Model A.)
Fluminense : 60% (▲ 4%)
24% (▼ 1%)
Chapecoense : 16% (▼ 3%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 2.2 - 0.9 (Model B.4)
Fluminense : 46% (▼ 10%)
23% (▼ 2%)
Chapecoense : 31% (▲ 12%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 57.1%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 1.3 - 5.3 - 10.6
Fluminense : 73% (▲ 17%)
18% (▼ 7%)
Chapecoense : 9% (▼ 10%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 2 game(s)

HOME : 100%
D : 0%
AWAY : 0%

Based on Home team = 1.3 (73%) Trend: 6 game(s)

HOME : 100%
D : 0%
AWAY : 0%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 77%
D : 10%
AWAY : 13%

Based on Home team = 1.3 (73%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 74%
D : 13%
AWAY : 13%


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