Newcastle

2 - 1

Manchester Utd

Wed, Mar 4, 2026 20:15 (UTC)


Facts

Newcastle :
William Osula 90'
Anthony Gordon 45' +6 (Pen.)
Jacob Ramsey 45' +1 RED

Manchester Utd :
Casemiro 45' +9

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 60%
D: 10%
Away: 30%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

Neutral

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (3.33 - 6.25 - 1.85)
HOMETEAM: 30%
16%
AWAYTEAM: 54%

Newcastle (Fact Index 3.33): Expected Win % is 30%, compared to a 17% actual win rate for identical index values.

Manchester Utd (Fact Index 1.85): Expected Win % is 54%, compared to a 50% actual win rate for identical index values.

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 17%
33%
AWAY : 50%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 62%
25%
Underdog : 13%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.5 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Newcastle : 45% (▲ 15%)
18% (▲ 2%)
Manchester Utd : 37% (▼ 17%)


Average Odds : 2.6 - 3.7 - 2.6
Newcastle : 37% (▲ 7%)
26% (▲ 10%)
Manchester Utd : 37% (▼ 17%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 40%
D : 23%
AWAY : 37%

Hometeam 2.6 = 2.6 Awayteam Trend:

HOME : 46%
D : 17%
AWAY : 37%

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