Chiba Lotte Marines

2 - 1

Fukuoka S. Hawks

Sat, Oct 3, 2026 09:00 (UTC)


FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 30%
D: 0%
Away: 70%

Home team Side

Away team Side

Neutral

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (3.45 - 1.43)
HOMETEAM: 29%
1%
AWAYTEAM: 70%

Weight: [Distant] (63.64)
Intensity: [Tilted] (36.36)

Chiba Lotte Marines (Fact Index 3.45):
Expected Win % is 29%, compared to a 60% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 75% in this event.

Fukuoka S. Hawks (Fact Index 1.43):
Expected Win % is 70%, compared to a 40% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 25% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Chiba Lotte Marines:
T : 0.449 (0.425 / ▲0.024)
H : 0.530 (0.512 / ▲0.018)
A : 0.371 (0.344 / ▲0.027)
P : 0.333 (0.433 / ▼0.100)

Fukuoka S. Hawks:
T : 0.667 (0.703 / ▼0.036)
H : 0.681 (0.738 / ▼0.057)
A : 0.652 (0.666 / ▼0.014)
P : 1.000 (0.913 / ▲0.087)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 4 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 75%
0%
AWAY : 25%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 4 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 25%
25%
Underdog : 50%


Baseball

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 5 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 60%
0%
AWAY : 40%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 5 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 40%
20%
Underdog : 40%

PREDICTION
Expected Runs (xR) : 2.5 - 4.8 (Model A.)
Chiba Lotte Marines : 27% (▼ 2%)
0% (▼ 1%)
Fukuoka S. Hawks : 73% (▲ 3%)

Expected Runs (xR) : 3.1 - 5.8 (Model B.4)
Chiba Lotte Marines : 21% (▼ 8%)
0% (▼ 1%)
Fukuoka S. Hawks : 79% (▲ 9%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 100%

Since baseball involves two- or three-game series, this prediction could be for the whole series.

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.6 - 1.5
Chiba Lotte Marines : 37% (▲ 8%)
0% (▼ 1%)
Fukuoka S. Hawks : 63% (▼ 7%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 13 game(s)

HOME : 38%
D : 0%
AWAY : 62%

Based on Away team = 1.5 (63%) Trend: 18 game(s)

HOME : 33%
D : 6%
AWAY : 61%


Baseball

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 40%
D : 0%
AWAY : 60%

Based on Away team = 1.5 (63%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 30%
D : 0%
AWAY : 70%


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