Inter-League

San Diego Padres

7 - 6

Seattle Mariners

Defending the Turf: San Diego Padres Wins 7th in a Row. However, Seattle Mariners Road Trip Hell: 7th Straight Away Loss.

Thu, Apr 16, 2026 01:40 (UTC)


Facts

San Diego Padres :
R. Vasquez (SP, 2.49) 4.0, 5H, 4R, 4ER, 4BB, 6K
A. Jacob (W, 1-0, 0.00) 2.0, 1H, 1BB, 3K
2B: Laureano (4, Speier); Sheets 2 (7, Hancock, Muñoz); Merrill (5, Ferrer)
HR: Bogaerts (3, 6th inning off Hancock 1 on, 1 Out)
RBI: Bogaerts 2 (13), Laureano (12), Tatis Jr. (8), Campusano (5), Merrill 2 (13)
Seattle Mariners :
E. Hancock (SP, 2.28), 6.0, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 6K, 1HR
A. Munoz (L, 2-2, 9.45), 0.2, 4H, 5R, 5ER, 1BB, 1K
J. Ferrer (B, 2.57), 0.0, 1H
2B: Arozarena (4, Vásquez); Raley (4, Jacob); Raleigh (3, Vásquez); Canzone (4, Vásquez)
HR: Raley (4, 5th inning off Marinaccio 1 on, 1 Out)
RBI: Raley 2 (12), Donovan 2 (8), Canzone 2 (7)
#200 FOR XANDER BOGAERTS! Xander hits a two-run homer for the 200th of his career! 🫡💥
FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 40%
D: 0%
Away: 60%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.72 - 2.38)
HOMETEAM: 58%
0%
AWAYTEAM: 42%

San Diego Padres (Fact Index 1.72): Expected Win % is 58%, compared to a 33% actual win rate for identical index values.

Seattle Mariners (Fact Index 2.38): Expected Win % is 42%, compared to a 67% actual win rate for identical index values.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 33%
0%
AWAY : 67%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 43%
7%
Underdog : 50%

PREDICTION
Expected Runs (xR) : 4.5 - 4.5 (Model A.)
San Diego Padres : 53% (▼ 5%)
0% (-)
Seattle Mariners : 47% (▲ 5%)

|Season Win%|Expected Win%|Expected Win% - Season Win%
T | San Diego Padres | 0.647 | 0.611 | ▼ 0.036
T | Seattle Mariners | 0.444 | 0.555 | ▲ 0.111
H | San Diego Padres | 0.636 | 0.620 | ▼ 0.016
A | Seattle Mariners | 0.143 | 0.304 | ▲ 0.161
P | San Diego Padres | 1.000 | 0.858 | ▼ 0.142
P | Seattle Mariners | 0.667 | 0.619 | ▼ 0.048
T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)

Expected Runs (xR) : 4.3 - 4.6 (Model B.4)
San Diego Padres : 48% (▼ 10%)
0% (-)
Seattle Mariners : 52% (▲ 10%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: ver.B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 100%)


Average Odds : 1.9 - 1.9
San Diego Padres : 50% (▼ 8%)
0% (-)
Seattle Mariners : 50% (▲ 8%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 40%
D : 0%
AWAY : 60%

Hometeam 1.9 = 1.9 Awayteam Trend:

HOME : 40%
D : 0%
AWAY : 60%

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