Minnesota Twins

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Tampa Bay Rays

Sat, Apr 4, 2026 23:10 (UTC)


Facts

Minnesota Twins :
M. Abel (SP, L, 0-2, 11.05) 4.0, 6H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 3K
RBI: Lee (2)
Tampa Bay Rays :
S. Matz (SP, W, 2-0, 4.09) 6.0, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 8K
2B: Aranda (2, Abel)
3B: Díaz (1, Kent)
RBI: Díaz 2 (10), Aranda 2 (7), Feduccia (1), Williamson (3)
FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 50%
D: 0%
Away: 50%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

Neutral

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.72 - 2.38)
HOMETEAM: 58%
0%
AWAYTEAM: 42%

Minnesota Twins (Fact Index 1.72): Expected Win % is 58%, compared to a 37% actual win rate for identical index values.

Tampa Bay Rays (Fact Index 2.38): Expected Win % is 42%, compared to a 63% actual win rate for identical index values.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 37%
0%
AWAY : 63%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 43%
7%
Underdog : 50%

PREDICTION
Expected Runs (xR) : 5.5 - 6.0 (Model A.)
Minnesota Twins : 51% (▼ 7%)
0% (-)
Tampa Bay Rays : 49% (▲ 7%)

|Season Win%|Expected Win%|Expected Win% - Season Win%
T | Minnesota Twins | 0.429 | 0.554 | ▲ 0.125
T | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.286 | 0.347 | ▲ 0.061
A | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.286 | 0.347 | ▲ 0.061
P | Minnesota Twins | 0.500 | 0.570 | ▲ 0.070
P | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.333 | 0.338 | ▲ 0.005
T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)

Expected Runs (xR) : 5.7 - 4.7 (Model B.4)
Minnesota Twins : 61% (▲ 3%)
0% (-)
Tampa Bay Rays : 39% (▼ 3%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: ver.B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 100%)


Average Odds : 1.9 - 1.9
Minnesota Twins : 50% (▼ 8%)
0% (-)
Tampa Bay Rays : 50% (▲ 8%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 40%
D : 0%
AWAY : 60%

Hometeam 1.9 = 1.9 Awayteam Trend:

HOME : 37%
D : 0%
AWAY : 63%

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