Philadelphia Phillies

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Washington Nationals

Fortress: Philadelphia Phillies Wins 2nd Straight at Home. However, Washington Nationals is battling through a 2-match win drought.

Wed, Apr 1, 2026 17:05 (UTC)


Facts

Philadelphia Phillies :
C. Sanchez (SP, 0.79) 5.1, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 4BB, 7K
J. Bowlan - B. Keller - Z. Pop - J. Alvarado
J. Duran (W: 1-1, 2.45) 1.0, 1K
2B: Schwarber (1, Cavalli); Crawford (1, Cavalli)
HR: Harper (1, 8th inning off Pérez 0 on, 0 Out); Realmuto (1, 7th inning off Granillo 0 on, 0 Out)
RBI: Harper (3), Realmuto (1), Schwarber (4), Sosa 2 (2), Crawford (1)
Washington Nationals :
C. Cavalli (SP, 2.79) 6.0, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 3K
A. Granillo - C. Perez (H) - C. Beeter (H) - P. Poulin (H)
C. Henry (L: 0-1, B, 1, 0.00) 0.1, 3H, 1R, 1BB
2B: House (1, Sánchez)
HR: Abrams (1, 7th inning off Keller 2 on, 2 Out)
RBI: Abrams 3 (6), Millas (2)
Nationals vs. Phillies Game Highlights (4/1/26) | MLB Highlights
FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 60%
D: 0%
Away: 40%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

Neutral

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.13 - 1.89)
HOMETEAM: 47%
0%
AWAYTEAM: 53%

Philadelphia Phillies (Fact Index 2.13): Expected Win % is 47%, compared to a 43% actual win rate for identical index values.

Washington Nationals (Fact Index 1.89): Expected Win % is 53%, compared to a 57% actual win rate for identical index values.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 43%
0%
AWAY : 57%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 50%
7%
Underdog : 43%

PREDICTION
Expected Runs (xR) : 6.0 - 6.0 (Model A.)
Philadelphia Phillies : 49% (▲ 2%)
0% (-)
Washington Nationals : 51% (▼ 2%)

|Season Win%|Expected Win%|Expected Win% - Season Win%
T | Philadelphia Phillies | 0.400 | 0.250 | ▼ 0.150
T | Washington Nationals | 0.600 | 0.677 | ▲ 0.077
H | Philadelphia Phillies | 0.400 | 0.250 | ▼ 0.150
A | Washington Nationals | 0.600 | 0.677 | ▲ 0.077
P | Philadelphia Phillies | 0.400 | 0.250 | ▼ 0.150
P | Washington Nationals | 0.600 | 0.677 | ▲ 0.077
T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)

Expected Runs (xR) : 4.7 - 5.5 (Model B.4)
Philadelphia Phillies : 48% (▲ 1%)
0% (-)
Washington Nationals : 52% (▼ 1%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: ver.B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 100%)


Average Odds : 1.4 - 3.1
Philadelphia Phillies : 69% (▲ 22%)
0% (-)
Washington Nationals : 31% (▼ 22%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 57%
D : 3%
AWAY : 40%

Hometeam = 1.4 Trend:

HOME : 54%
D : 3%
AWAY : 43%

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