Pittsburgh Pirates

7 - 1

San Diego Padres

Tue, Apr 7, 2026 22:40 (UTC)


Facts

Pittsburgh Pirates :
P. Skenes (SP, W, 2-1, 5.25) 6.1, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 6K, 1HR
H: I. Mattson (2, 2.70), G. Soto (1, 1.23)
2B: Cruz (1, Pivetta); Davis (3, Pivetta)
RBI: Cruz 2 (12), Mangum (2), Gonzales 2 (7), Griffin 2 (3)
San Diego Padres :
N. Pivetta (SP, L, 1-2, 5.54) 5.0, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 8K
HR: Bogaerts (1, 7th inning off Skenes 0 on, 1 Out)
RBI: Bogaerts (4)
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Full Game Highlights | ESPN MLB
FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 20%
D: 0%
Away: 80%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.22 - 1.82)
HOMETEAM: 45%
0%
AWAYTEAM: 55%

Pittsburgh Pirates (Fact Index 2.22): Expected Win % is 45%, compared to a 37% actual win rate for identical index values.

San Diego Padres (Fact Index 1.82): Expected Win % is 55%, compared to a 63% actual win rate for identical index values.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 37%
0%
AWAY : 63%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 53%
7%
Underdog : 40%

PREDICTION
Expected Runs (xR) : 4.0 - 5.0 (Model A.)
Pittsburgh Pirates : 43% (▼ 2%)
0% (-)
San Diego Padres : 57% (▲ 2%)

|Season Win%|Expected Win%|Expected Win% - Season Win%
T | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.600 | 0.565 | ▼ 0.035
T | San Diego Padres | 0.500 | 0.476 | ▼ 0.024
H | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.750 | 0.594 | ▼ 0.156
A | San Diego Padres | 0.750 | 0.645 | ▼ 0.105
P | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.833 | 0.722 | ▼ 0.111
P | San Diego Padres | 0.667 | 0.589 | ▼ 0.078
T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)

Expected Runs (xR) : 3.5 - 3.5 (Model B.4)
Pittsburgh Pirates : 48% (▲ 3%)
0% (-)
San Diego Padres : 52% (▼ 3%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: ver.B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 100%)


Average Odds : 1.7 - 2.3
Pittsburgh Pirates : 58% (▲ 13%)
0% (-)
San Diego Padres : 42% (▼ 13%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 53%
D : 0%
AWAY : 47%

Hometeam = 1.7 Trend:

HOME : 57%
D : 0%
AWAY : 43%

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