Hiroshima Carp

4 - 3

Yakult Swallows

Hiroshima Carp secure 4th consecutive victory against Yakult Swallows. Meanwhile, Yakult Swallows Rut Deepens: 6 Games Without Win.

Wed, Jul 8, 2026 09:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 50%
D: 0%
Away: 50%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

Neutral

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.82 - 2.38)
HOMETEAM: 55%
3%
AWAYTEAM: 42%

Hiroshima Carp (Fact Index 1.82): Expected Win % is 55%, compared to a 62% actual win rate for identical index values.

Yakult Swallows (Fact Index 2.38): Expected Win % is 42%, compared to a 38% actual win rate for identical index values.

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 62%
0%
AWAY : 38%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 85%
0%
Underdog : 15%

PREDICTION
Expected Runs (xR) : 3.5 - 4.0 (Model A.)
Hiroshima Carp : 50% (▼ 5%)
0% (▼ 3%)
Yakult Swallows : 50% (▲ 8%)

|Season Win%|Expected Win%|Expected Win% - Season Win%
T | Hiroshima Carp | 0.420 | 0.443 | ▲ 0.023
T | Yakult Swallows | 0.514 | 0.452 | ▼ 0.062
H | Hiroshima Carp | 0.441 | 0.386 | ▼ 0.055
A | Yakult Swallows | 0.564 | 0.539 | ▼ 0.025
P | Hiroshima Carp | 0.600 | 0.450 | ▼ 0.150
P | Yakult Swallows | 0.167 | 0.183 | ▲ 0.016
T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)

Expected Runs (xR) : 4.2 - 3.4 (Model B.4)
Hiroshima Carp : 61% (▲ 6%)
0% (▼ 3%)
Yakult Swallows : 39% (▼ 3%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: ver.B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 100%)


Average Odds : 1.7 - 2.2
Hiroshima Carp : 57% (▲ 2%)
0% (▼ 3%)
Yakult Swallows : 44% (▲ 2%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 41%
D : 7%
AWAY : 52%

Hometeam = 1.7 Trend:

HOME : 67%
D : 0%
AWAY : 33%

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