Chicago Cubs

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Fortress Crumbles: Chicago Cubs Lose 2nd Straight at Home. However, Away Dominance: Pittsburgh Pirates Grabs 4th Consecutive Win.

Sat, Apr 11, 2026 18:20 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 70%
D: 0%
Away: 30%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.92 - 2.08)
HOMETEAM: 52%
0%
AWAYTEAM: 48%

Chicago Cubs (Fact Index 1.92): Expected Win % is 52%, compared to a 37% actual win rate for identical index values.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Fact Index 2.08): Expected Win % is 48%, compared to a 63% actual win rate for identical index values.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 37%
0%
AWAY : 63%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 54%
3%
Underdog : 43%

PREDICTION
Expected Runs (xR) : 6.1 - 4.5 (Model A.)
Chicago Cubs : 60% (▲ 8%)
0% (-)
Pittsburgh Pirates : 40% (▼ 8%)

|Season Win%|Expected Win%|Expected Win% - Season Win%
T | Chicago Cubs | 0.462 | 0.589 | ▲ 0.127
T | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.615 | 0.570 | ▼ 0.045
H | Chicago Cubs | 0.429 | 0.565 | ▲ 0.136
A | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.571 | 0.580 | ▲ 0.009
P | Chicago Cubs | 0.500 | 0.646 | ▲ 0.146
P | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.667 | 0.591 | ▼ 0.076
T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)

Expected Runs (xR) : 4.1 - 2.8 (Model B.4)
Chicago Cubs : 67% (▲ 15%)
0% (-)
Pittsburgh Pirates : 33% (▼ 15%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: ver.B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 100%)


Average Odds : 1.7 - 2.2
Chicago Cubs : 57% (▲ 5%)
0% (-)
Pittsburgh Pirates : 43% (▼ 5%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 60%
D : 0%
AWAY : 40%

Hometeam = 1.7 Trend:

HOME : 50%
D : 0%
AWAY : 50%

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