Cincinnati Reds

3 - 8

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds have lost their home advantage, falling in 2 straight games. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh Pirates on Fire: 2-Game Winning Streak.

Wed, Apr 1, 2026 16:40 (UTC)


Facts

Cincinnati Reds :
A. Abbott (SP, L: 0-1, 3.09) 5.2, 5H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 5K, 1HR
2B: Lowe (1, Skenes)
HR: Suárez (2, 6th inning off Montgomery 1 on, 1 Out)
RBI: Suárez 2 (6), Lowe (1)
Pittsburgh Pirates :
P. Skenes (SP, W: 1-1, 9.53) 5.0, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 5K
2B: Gonzales (2, Ashcraft)
HR: Reynolds (2, 9th inning off Pagán 1 on, 1 Out); Cruz (3, 1st inning off Abbott 2 on, 2 Out)
RBI: Reynolds 2 (4), Cruz 3 (6), Horwitz (1), Gonzales 2 (5)
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FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 40%
D: 0%
Away: 60%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.75 - 2.33)
HOMETEAM: 57%
0%
AWAYTEAM: 43%

Cincinnati Reds (Fact Index 1.75): Expected Win % is 57%, compared to a 67% actual win rate for identical index values.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Fact Index 2.33): Expected Win % is 43%, compared to a 33% actual win rate for identical index values.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 67%
0%
AWAY : 33%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 70%
3%
Underdog : 27%

PREDICTION
Expected Runs (xR) : 4.0 - 4.0 (Model A.)
Cincinnati Reds : 53% (▼ 4%)
0% (-)
Pittsburgh Pirates : 47% (▲ 4%)

|Season Win%|Expected Win%|Expected Win% - Season Win%
T | Cincinnati Reds | 0.600 | 0.387 | ▼ 0.213
T | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.400 | 0.458 | ▲ 0.058
H | Cincinnati Reds | 0.600 | 0.387 | ▼ 0.213
A | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.400 | 0.458 | ▲ 0.058
P | Cincinnati Reds | 0.600 | 0.387 | ▼ 0.213
P | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.400 | 0.458 | ▲ 0.058
T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)

Expected Runs (xR) : 3.6 - 4.5 (Model B.4)
Cincinnati Reds : 40% (▼ 17%)
0% (-)
Pittsburgh Pirates : 60% (▲ 17%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: ver.B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 100%)


Average Odds : 2.3 - 1.6
Cincinnati Reds : 41% (▼ 16%)
0% (-)
Pittsburgh Pirates : 59% (▲ 16%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 47%
D : 0%
AWAY : 53%

Awayteam = 1.6 Trend:

HOME : 53%
D : 0%
AWAY : 47%

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