Pittsburgh Pirates

4 - 5

Washington Nationals

Tue, Apr 14, 2026 22:40 (UTC)

Facts

Pittsburgh Pirates :
M. Keller (SP, L 1-1, 2.86) 4.0, 6H, 5R, 5ER, 4BB, 3K, 1HR
2B: Ozuna (1, Mikolas); Griffin (2, Varland)
HR: Lowe (7, 1st inning off Poulin 0 on, 1 Out); Bart (1, 5th inning off Mikolas 0 on, 1 Out)
RBI: Ozuna (1), Lowe (15), Bart (3), Gonzales (8)
Washington Nationals :
P. Poulin (SP, 4.50), 1.0, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1K, 1HR
M. Parker (W, 1-0, 0.00)
C. Perez (H, 3, 8.22), C. Beeter (H, 2, 3.24)
G. Varland (S, 2, 4.50)
2B: Abrams (2, Mattson); House (4, Montgomery)
HR: Abrams (6, 3rd inning off Keller 0 on, 2 Out)
RBI: García Jr. (9), Abrams 2 (19), House (7), Lile (6)
FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 50%
D: 0%
Away: 50%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.69 - 2.44)
HOMETEAM: 59%
0%
AWAYTEAM: 41%

Pittsburgh Pirates (Fact Index 1.69): Expected Win % is 59%, compared to a 60% actual win rate for identical index values.

Washington Nationals (Fact Index 2.44): Expected Win % is 41%, compared to a 40% actual win rate for identical index values.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 60%
0%
AWAY : 40%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 60%
0%
Underdog : 40%

PREDICTION
Expected Runs (xR) : 5.5 - 4.5 (Model A.)
Pittsburgh Pirates : 59% (-)
0% (-)
Washington Nationals : 41% (-)

|Season Win%|Expected Win%|Expected Win% - Season Win%
T | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.625 | 0.618 | ▼ 0.007
T | Washington Nationals | 0.438 | 0.454 | ▲ 0.016
H | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.714 | 0.682 | ▼ 0.032
A | Washington Nationals | 0.600 | 0.556 | ▼ 0.044
P | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.667 | 0.688 | ▲ 0.021
P | Washington Nationals | 0.500 | 0.382 | ▼ 0.118
T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)

Expected Runs (xR) : 5.5 - 4.3 (Model B.4)
Pittsburgh Pirates : 57% (▼ 2%)
0% (-)
Washington Nationals : 43% (▲ 2%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: ver.B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 100%)

Average Odds : 1.6 - 2.5
Pittsburgh Pirates : 61% (▲ 2%)
0% (-)
Washington Nationals : 39% (▼ 2%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 53%
D : 0%
AWAY : 47%

Hometeam = 1.6 Trend:

HOME : 57%
D : 0%
AWAY : 43%

Pittsburgh Pirates

Last 3:
MLB 2026-04-22 Texas Rangers 5 - 1 Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB 2026-04-19 Pittsburgh Pirates 6 - 3 Tampa Bay Rays
MLB 2026-04-18 Pittsburgh Pirates 7 - 8 Tampa Bay Rays

Next 3:
MLB 2026-04-23 Texas Rangers - Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB 2026-04-24 Texas Rangers - Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB 2026-04-24 Milwaukee Brewers - Pittsburgh Pirates

Last 20 games

HOME :

AWAY :

Washington Nationals

Last 3:
MLB 2026-04-21 Washington Nationals 11 - 4 Atlanta Braves
MLB 2026-04-20 Washington Nationals 4 - 9 Atlanta Braves
MLB 2026-04-19 Washington Nationals 3 - 0 San Francisco Giants

Next 3:
MLB 2026-04-22 Washington Nationals - Atlanta Braves
MLB 2026-04-23 Washington Nationals - Atlanta Braves
MLB 2026-04-24 Chicago White Sox - Washington Nationals

Last 20 games

HOME :

AWAY :

© 2020 - 2026 | Waveflow SportsLab | Terms of Use · Privacy Policy | All Rights Reserved.

©2026 Waveflow SportsLab
Terms of Use | Privacy Policy