Hiroshima Carp

7 - 3

Chunichi Dragons

Dominance: Hiroshima Carp make it 2 in a row over Chunichi Dragons. Meanwhile, Chunichi Dragons road woes intensify with a 6th straight away loss.

Fri, May 1, 2026 09:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 70%
D: 0%
Away: 30%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

Neutral

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.72 - 2.56)
HOMETEAM: 58%
3%
AWAYTEAM: 39%

Hiroshima Carp (Fact Index 1.72): Expected Win % is 58%, compared to a 64% actual win rate for identical index values.

Chunichi Dragons (Fact Index 2.56): Expected Win % is 39%, compared to a 36% actual win rate for identical index values.

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 64%
0%
AWAY : 36%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 57%
7%
Underdog : 36%

PREDICTION
Expected Runs (xR) : 3.5 - 3.0 (Model A.)
Hiroshima Carp : 57% (▼ 1%)
0% (▼ 3%)
Chunichi Dragons : 43% (▲ 4%)

|Season Win%|Expected Win%|Expected Win% - Season Win%
T | Hiroshima Carp | 0.375 | 0.418 | ▲ 0.043
T | Chunichi Dragons | 0.296 | 0.377 | ▲ 0.081
H | Hiroshima Carp | 0.429 | 0.347 | ▼ 0.082
A | Chunichi Dragons | 0.154 | 0.330 | ▲ 0.176
P | Hiroshima Carp | 0.400 | 0.677 | ▲ 0.277
P | Chunichi Dragons | 0.667 | 0.622 | ▼ 0.045
T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)

Expected Runs (xR) : 2.6 - 2.6 (Model B.4)
Hiroshima Carp : 49% (▼ 9%)
0% (▼ 3%)
Chunichi Dragons : 51% (▲ 12%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: ver.B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 100%)


Average Odds : 2.0 - 1.8
Hiroshima Carp : 48% (▼ 10%)
0% (▼ 3%)
Chunichi Dragons : 52% (▲ 13%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 47%
D : 0%
AWAY : 53%

Awayteam = 1.8 Trend:

HOME : 43%
D : 0%
AWAY : 57%

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