Cincinnati Reds

4 - 3

San Diego Padres

Tue, Sep 1, 2026 22:40 (UTC)


FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 60%
D: 0%
Away: 40%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.96 - 2.04)
HOMETEAM: 51%
0%
AWAYTEAM: 49%

Weight: [Gap Exists] (41.38)
Intensity: [Moderate] (58.62)

Cincinnati Reds (Fact Index 1.96):
Expected Win % is 51%, compared to a 70% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 67% in this event.

San Diego Padres (Fact Index 2.04):
Expected Win % is 49%, compared to a 30% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 33% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Cincinnati Reds:
T : 0.471 (0.421 / ▲0.050)
H : 0.464 (0.425 / ▲0.039)
A : 0.478 (0.418 / ▲0.060)
P : 0.500 (0.344 / ▲0.156)

San Diego Padres:
T : 0.529 (0.513 / ▲0.016)
H : 0.594 (0.536 / ▲0.058)
A : 0.464 (0.494 / ▼0.030)
P : 0.333 (0.500 / ▼0.167)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 67%
0%
AWAY : 33%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 43%
3%
Underdog : 54%


Baseball

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 70%
0%
AWAY : 30%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 43%
3%
Underdog : 54%

PREDICTION
Expected Runs (xR) : 4.1 - 4.4 (Model A.)
Cincinnati Reds : 49% (▼ 2%)
0% (-)
San Diego Padres : 51% (▲ 2%)

Expected Runs (xR) : 4.0 - 4.6 (Model B.4)
Cincinnati Reds : 42% (▼ 9%)
0% (-)
San Diego Padres : 58% (▲ 9%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 100%

Since baseball involves two- or three-game series, this prediction could be for the whole series.

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.2 - 1.7
Cincinnati Reds : 44% (▼ 7%)
0% (-)
San Diego Padres : 56% (▲ 7%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 50%
D : 0%
AWAY : 50%

Based on Away team = 1.7 (56%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 47%
D : 0%
AWAY : 53%


Baseball

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 43%
D : 0%
AWAY : 57%

Based on Away team = 1.7 (56%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 37%
D : 0%
AWAY : 63%


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